The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China.

BACKGROUND: Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China. METHODS: We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups. RESULTS: A total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45-64 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15-64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.

Effectiveness of potential antiviral treatments in COVID-19 transmission control: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy. METHODS: We collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0-0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/γ decrease (reduction was set as 1-3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (fc) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ≤ 14; 15-44; 45-64; and ≥ 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f). RESULTS: Comparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/γ = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01-0.85%). When 1/γ = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71-0.12%). CONCLUSIONS: Antiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.

Structural basis for bivalent binding and inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 infection by human potent neutralizing antibodies.

Neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (nAbs) to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) represent promising candidates for clinical intervention against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We isolated a large number of nAbs from SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals capable of disrupting proper interaction between the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the viral spike (S) protein and the receptor angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). However, the structural basis for their potent neutralizing activity remains unclear. Here, we report cryo-EM structures of the ten most potent nAbs in their native full-length IgG-form or in both IgG-form and Fab-form bound to the trimeric S protein of SARS-CoV-2. The bivalent binding of the full-length IgG is found to associate with more RBDs in the "up" conformation than the monovalent binding of Fab, perhaps contributing to the enhanced neutralizing activity of IgG and triggering more shedding of the S1 subunit from the S protein. Comparison of a large number of nAbs identified common and unique structural features associated with their potent neutralizing activities. This work provides a structural basis for further understanding the mechanism of nAbs, especially through revealing the bivalent binding and its correlation with more potent neutralization and the shedding of S1 subunit.

Bat and pangolin coronavirus spike glycoprotein structures provide insights into SARS-CoV-2 evolution.

In recognizing the host cellular receptor and mediating fusion of virus and cell membranes, the spike (S) glycoprotein of coronaviruses is the most critical viral protein for cross-species transmission and infection. Here we determined the cryo-EM structures of the spikes from bat (RaTG13) and pangolin (PCoV_GX) coronaviruses, which are closely related to SARS-CoV-2. All three receptor-binding domains (RBDs) of these two spike trimers are in the "down" conformation, indicating they are more prone to adopt the receptor-binding inactive state. However, we found that the PCoV_GX, but not the RaTG13, spike is comparable to the SARS-CoV-2 spike in binding the human ACE2 receptor and supporting pseudovirus cell entry. We further identified critical residues in the RBD underlying different activities of the RaTG13 and PCoV_GX/SARS-CoV-2 spikes. These results collectively indicate that tight RBD-ACE2 binding and efficient RBD conformational sampling are required for the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 to gain highly efficient infection.